Learning Curves for Gaussian Processes

I consider the problem of calculating learning curves (i.e., average generalization performance) of Gaussian processes used for regression. A simple expression for the generalization error in terms of the eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance function is derived, and used as the starting point for several approximation schemes. I identify where these become exact, and compare with existing bounds on learning curves; the new approximations, which can be used for any input space dimension, generally get substantially closer to the truth.